English Premiership 06/07 _wk 1 (19 Aug 06)

wuntun · Aug 14, 2006

Newcastle -0.5 (vs wigan) @ 1.80 nordicbet (2/10 confidence)

Like Zozo said earlier in his post, we had a discussion about this game and think that the odds on the home win for Newcastle at 1.80 from Nordicbet have no doubt value.
With the return of many key players who were all out injured for most of last season, let’s hope it’s a totally new and fresh start for them this year and fulfil a strong challenge for the top European spots.
Transfer activity seems less active than usual (at the time of writing this post) for Newcastle, but like I said above, the full fitness of key players like Steven Taylor, Scott Parker, Emre, Luque and the return of players out on loan last season, James Milner and Nicky Butt are almost like new signings themselves.
Even though they have only made one major signing so far, major is an understatement as Damion Duff is one of the best left-wingers in the world and no-one can say otherwise.

Wigan have had the kind of summer all promoted teams who have had a decent season and survive relegation dread (losing their best talent), with two of their best players in Jason Roberts and Jimmy Bullard departing for bigger clubs and bigger paycheques, as well as possibly another big player departing in Pascal Chimbonda.
But they have imo signed well this summer, recruiting ex-England international Emile Heskey to partner Henri Camara up front as well as former AZ Alkmaar midfielder Denny Landzaat and loaned <st1

lace>Liverpool</st1

lace> keeper Chris Kirkland for six months as well as others.

Both teams have had a decent pre-season, but this is still an opening game with should be viewed with some caution, as on paper Newcastle have no doubt the superior squad, Wigan’s teamwork was unmatched last season and we all saw how they opened their Premiership adventure last season against Chelsea (they could’ve won).
My only worry is their new attacking pair of Heskey and Camara, with Heskey’s bulk and height, he can really put himself about as well as Camara’s awesome pace which could trouble most backlines in the Premiership.

Though saying that, with only 1,466 tickets allocated to Wigan for this fixture amongst a 52,000 capacity stadium, this is Newcastles game for the taking and to hopefully kick start what should be a long awaited good season for Newcastle, but with the way all opening games could go, its always wiser to tread a bit more carefully, hence my confidence.

wuntun · Aug 14, 2006

(sheff utd vs) Liverpool -0.75 @ 1.86 samvo (5/10 confidence)

*odds before their CL game vs Maccabi were around 1.78-1.80 and after/now they are 1.88, but imo its nothing to be too worried about. Liverpool have had a poor pre-season and we all know players hate pre-season, but they have mainly been trying out new formations having bought pacey attackers this summer as Benitez thinks this is what was missing from last season, and i cannot disagree. Bellamy, Gonzalez and Pennant are very very fast and skillful.

But they had a poor game and got a lucky win against Maccabi the other night and Gerard was played out of position as the support striker (a position that people were argueing that he should've played for England behind Rooney or Crouch), but from the evidence of that game, that is not a position that suits the team as he drifts all over the pitch ie at back to defend, out wide to cross, which leaves Bellamy as a lone striker and usually the person who attacks the box from centre midfield is himself and the rest of the team will have to learn to do this which will take time, so they will probably start the season with 2 out and out strikers up front.

/ At the time of writing this post, Liverpool have just beaten Chelsea 2-1 in the Charity Shield and imo and i have told this to Aquiles, Zozo and many other friends, is that Liverpool are i think the biggest title contenders to Chelsea and not Arsenal or Man Utd and the 1.88 floating about for the above bet will drop again.

*(...will add more news nearer the game)

joeyfitzclick · Aug 15, 2006

Not sure of his status for Newcastle on Saturday but just a heads up that Duff withdrew from the Rep of Ireland squad today through injury.

wuntun · Aug 18, 2006

(Newcastle vs) wigan +0.5 @ 2.15 samvo (1.6/10 confidence)

Very sorry to be posting this bet, with no disrespect to zozo, i just have a very awkward feeling about this game, since the post, so many things seem negative about Newcastle. Their defence again for one and only Ameobi up front who is crap and now Duff pulling out of the Irish game lastnite because of a sore groin, so not definitely sure if he will start on sat, as he might be rested.
Whereby the opposite seem to be happening with Wigan, the team have had a pretty decent pre-season against decent premiership equivalent clubs (i say this because, dont forget, last year was Wigans first in top a flight league) , Chimbonda is now committing himself to the team, and there is the new loan signing of Louis Antonio Valencia, who i saw in the WC for equador and looked a very good player. The speculation over Henri Camara making a quick exit to Newcastle has been ruled out, all is good and well at the JJB right now, especially now the whole Chimbonda saga is over, the team is far more happier and in good spirits for this game.

The comments above have really made me think, especially after watching a few Newcastle games since the post that its the same old defence that could wreck their start and it could be Camara and Heskey to be the first.
At first, taking this bet early, with all that was going on at Wigan and expecting Newcastle to sign at least one more BIG signing or more to the point, a striker, Kuyt is likely to go to Liverpool and im sure this will be an upset to the team as a whole.
Thats why i think its best to not chance this game and take the bet above which will mean you win/lose nothing if Newcastle win as you are cancelling out the Wigan stake, but if Wigan win, you lose 0.16/10 units to be precise.
My sincere apologies to everyone taken the earlier bet, the odds are dropping since the news of Chimbonda and Duffs injury, but i know we all have that gut or bad feeling once in a while...and for me, this is one of them.

sorry & gl

wuntun

wuntun · Aug 18, 2006

*Duff will play

wuntun · Aug 18, 2006

(Portsmouth vs Blackburn) over2.25 @ 2.02 samvo (2/10 confidence)

After much struggle to sign world class players this summer, with all the millions Harry has at his disposal, Kanu who signed just yesterday on a free is the only one that stands out for me. Sol campbell and David James are on their last legs, Glen Johnson is not a great defender, often caught short and likes to go forward, just as Matty Taylor does on the the opposite left back position and David Thompson a player who we always hear that has potential, but can never fulfil it everywhere he goes.
The target surely this season for Pompey is mid-table, but you cannot rule out that their priority is again to not get too involved with the relegation battle like last season.

On the other hand, Blackburn have been quietly active themselves, although having lost Bellamy to Liverpool, they have invested well and signed Francis Jeffers on a free and Benni McCathy and Jason Roberts for undisclosed amounts and a 3rd choice keeper, especially as Friedal hasnt many days left.
Although Bellamy is a very good player, i would have McCarthy and Roberts over the one Bellamy anyday of the week. These have been crucial main signings for Blackburn after losing also Paul Dickov (released), they will be looking to form a new look front line and a decent looking one indeed. They have had and up and down pre-season, but the McCarty-Roberts partnership looks to have started well, and clubs need big seasons to show they are trying to progress, but as well as to please the fans, it lifts the team too, and Benni has done just that since joining.

Portmouth are not the greatest defenders on the earth, but they know that anyways, their strengths lie in their attack and set pieces whilst for Blackburn this is also an area they have spent most on this season to build upon their good defense from last season.
With Portsmouth's eagerness to go forward and entertain, entertainment is definitely something you will get from them this season and as far as Blackburn are concerned, the McCarthy-Roberts partnership is eager to impress, especially as McCarthy has been wanting to come the premiership for several seasons, and finally blackburn have given him the chance and i am very eager to see him in action.

Not alot of games on opening day i can put a finger on for an over, but this is one i think has a better chance than most, i can see 3 goals or more and possibly both sides conceding, which is why ive gone for the over2.25

Hope this one can make up for the cancelled Newcastle post, for me right now, i dont really care if Newcastle win or not and i rarely backtrack, but for me, that was the right thing to do.

gl

wuntun